The Suns are Setting: Disaster in the Desert

 A note from Phoenix, where your correspondent from the West Valley has been following the local cagers for sixteen mediocre years. After a new regime took the reigns early in 2023, there was a new hope the Suns might leave that those disappointing seasons behind. Unfortunately the excitement soon turned to puzzlement, then to disappointment, and finally to disdain, watching the Suns get swept out of the first round of the NBA playoffs.

Today, the Suns fired coach Frank Vogel. One pundit called it a “business decision. Remaking your roster is messy and difficult, firing your coach is easy...you just say ‘you’re fired.’”

I won’t go into the seamy undercurrents that made this team pretty much uncoachable. I won’t name the diva who scores, but can’t be bothered to defend anyone, and reportedly hadn’t said a word to his coach in weeks. That’s “stuff” that is probably true, but certainly irrelevant. If we could resurrect the great Red Auerbach, even he couldn’t coach this team to anywhere near a championship.

This is a team built by a too-rich basketball-ignoramus. You don’t become a basketball savant by riding the bench at Michigan State. A walk-on, Ishbia averaged six-tenths of a point and three-tenths of a rebound in 115 total minutes over 48 games. If Suns GM James Jones--someone who should know better--had a hand in building this team he should have been gone before Vogel.

The fact is that the Suns will likely never get out of the playoffs with this team. What do I know? Not much, other than I know a train wreck when I see it, and I recognize the truth when I hear it. In this case that truth came from an anonymous NBA scout.

"They are poorly constructed," the scout said following their 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

"Where is their bench? Where is their rim-protecting, shot-blocking big as a starter or off the bench? Where is a decision-making point guard as a starter or off the bench? Where is their 6'7" defensive wing? Where is a power forward who plays with size and physicality, since KD doesn't want to play the 4? Where is their size? They are too small. All of that is essential to a winning franchise with championship aspirations."

Where from here? Probably nowhere. Bringing it back will likely get the same result, regardless of who is coaching. Tearing it down with the NBA’s spending cap and trade rules, the team’s player contracts, and poor or no 1st round draft picks over the next six years, is pretty much out of the question in the near term. So, Suns fans, get ready to watch the overpriced divas and cheap scrubs struggle to make the playoffs only to get quickly booted for at least the next half-decade.

Thoughts on Veteran's Day 2021

"The Squad," is a creation of the media to describe a small number of far-left women elected to Congress as Democrats who [I believe] have a socialist agenda that they promote through division and race-baiting.

That "squad" is not to be confused with the 3rd Squad, 3rd Platoon, Company D, 1st Battalion, 12th Cavalry, eight men pictured here in late 1968 or 1969, and many squads like it.

This Squad is not made up of poor blacks, or others from some fictional “underclass,” but rather is diverse in about the same proportion as our country at the time. One is black, one is Latino. There are no druggies here. There are men, 19-23 years-old who trust each other with their lives, whether or not they like each other, though most do. Over a year’s time in combat they will not see or participate in a war crime. They will see men die, or be grievously wounded. They will see a few heroic acts, and some not so heroic.

They will come home to wide-spread indifference--at best--except for the quiet appreciation of family and some friends. That will be enough for them. They will continue their education, hold responsible jobs, raise families, become grandfathers. They will be the backbone of this country through thirty-plus years after that war, though most of you won’t even be aware they are there, because they share their experiences only with a special few...those with whom they served. They were once, as one Delta veteran recently put it, “in the company of heroes,” and they will, years later, long to be back in that company. They will indeed, meet fifty years later, and share memories, tears, and hugs.

Thank you, third platoon veteran Andy Rios, for sending me this picture this day before Veterans Day, 2021. (First published on Facebook)

55 Years Ago

 Brian Tierney, a 19-year-old soldier from Roxbury, Connecticut, was my Radio Telephone Operator (RTO) during the time from December, 1967 to May, 1968, that I was Platoon Leader of the 3^rd Platoon of D Company, 1^st Battalion, 12^th Cavalry, 1^st Cavalry Division (Airmobile). There are a few “natural relationships” in an infantry unit in combat, including: Machine Gunner and Assistant Gunner; Pointman and his point support; Platoon Leader and RTO, along with the Platoon Medic. Brian and I shared a pancho “hooch” many of  our 144 nights in Binh Dinh and Quang Tri Provinces of Vietnam. Together, we soldiered through Tam Quan, Tet, Khe Sanh, and the A Shau Valley, along with lesser-known places in between. Brian dug our hole while I (and the Platoon Sergeant) laid in the platoon defenses, coordinated our flanks with adjoining platoons, and I attended the Company Commander’s daily meeting/brief. Brian walked with me every step of the way, not often further away than the length of the cord from radio to handset. Brian, occasionally seen with flowers on his helmet, was willing to share his opinion about how well—or not—the war, the 1^st Cavalry Division, the United States Army, D Company, and of course, the 3^rd Platoon were led and managed.

Nineteen days after I relinquished command of 3^rd Platoon, Brian was dead, cut down by a grenade while in pursuit of an enemy soldier. To some extent, in combat, one becomes inured to death, we try to keep our relationships at arms length if we can. But that’s the thing, we can’t, really, because there are those “natural relationships, and others to whom we become close in a foxhole or under fire, like it or not. Brian was one of those I with which I was through “thick and thin.” Who I would never be able to forget.

Everything about the story that came back from the field to LZ Sharon, where as Executive Officer, I was based, bothered me. The Battalion Commander, Lieutenant Colonel Robert Kerner, flying in his command helicopter, saw a single enemy soldier escaping toward a village. Calling D Company, located nearby, he ordered that he would pick up 3 men, including one RTO, and put them on the ground to pursue the enemy soldier. One didn’t have to be a soldier to recognized that as a dumb and dangerous idea. Brian had recently transferred from 3^rd Platoon to the company command group, so was junior among the RTO’s there, so the Company’s Commo Chief, to his regret to this very day, selected SP4 Tierney to go on the Battalion Commander’s “excursion.”
Reports of Brian’s death included neither the story of a questionable tactical decision by a senior commander, nor that Brian may have acted in self-sacrifice to protect those with him. Of the latter we shall really never know for certain, but circumstances seemed to support it. Those only got into the record after unofficial and unauthorized correspondence with Brian’s parents, and their subsequent inquire s. Ultimately, Brian’s actions were recognized by award of the Distinguished Service Cross, the army’s second highest award for valor, after only the Medal of Honor. The decision to put three soldiers in harms way—in a manner for which there was no rational, doctrinal, or tactical basis—was quietly buried.

Fooling Some of the People is Sometimes Quite Enough

In 2012, Mitt Romney was mocked by Barack Obama for seeing Russia as a threat. He didn’t forget. "The '80s called' and we didn't answer," says Romney today.

Nearly 10 years ago, Gov. Mitt Romney was painted by his presidential opponent in their third debate as being out of touch — especially with foreign policy. “...when you were asked what’s the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia. Not al Qaeda. You said Russia,” Obama told him. “And the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back,” he quipped.
This week, that moment in 2012 that came roaring back, thanks to the collective memory of the internet.

“Putin’s impunity predictably follows our tepid response to his previous horrors in Georgia and Crimea, our naïve efforts at one-sided ‘reset,’ and the shortsightedness of ‘America First,'” Romney said in a statement late Wednesday night, as news broke of the initial attack. “The ’80s called’ and we didn’t answer,” he added.

 

The Background to Obama’s Debate Attack

In March, 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney scolded his future opponent for telling Russian President Dmitry Medvedev he'd have more "flexibility" toward the country after his election.

"This is to Russia, without question, our number one geopolitical foe," Romney told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "They fight every cause for the world’s worst actors. The idea that [President Barack Obama] has some more flexibility in mind for Russia is very, very troubling, indeed."

Pressed by Blitzer, Romney then said the "greatest threat" America faced was a nuclear-armed Iran. But the perceived damage was done.

The Democrats Pick up the Attack

Obama, then-Vice President Joe Biden, and top officials like Secretary of State John Kerry and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton blasted Romney for the comments at the time, when Romney was heading towards clinching the GOP nomination and facing Obama in the general election.

"You don't call Russia our No. 1 enemy unless you're still stuck in a Cold War mind warp," Obama said that year.

"Governor Romney is mired in a Cold War mindset," Biden said. Kerry called it "preposterous," while Clinton said it was "dated to be looking backwards."

The Obama team cut a video with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright saying it showed Romney was unprepared for the job. Albright apologized in 2019.

The "Mainstream" Media Jumps on the Bandwagon

Romney's Russia comment was ripped not only by Democrats reaching for power,but by the media as a gaffe underscoring Romney's foreign policy inexperience. It’s a stark example of the mainstream press echoing Democratic talking points, particularly in light of subsequent years of fervent and fake “Russiagate” media coverage, continious bellicose actions by autocratic Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and this week's invasion of Ukraine.

Those rogues were—and are—the “darlings” of the left and democrat party:
The New York Times, MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell and Chris Matthews (he of the “tingle up his leg”), CNN’s Paul Begala, and the Huffington Post’s Sam Stein.

The New York Times editorial board said Romney's "comments display either a shocking lack of knowledge about international affairs or just craven politics." "Either way, they are reckless and unworthy of a major presidential contender," the Times wrote at the time.

It would go on to endorse Obama in the general election; the Times has not endorsed a Republican for president since 1956.

"A throwback to the Cold War," MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell said of Romney's comments in 2012. "I mean, we work with Russia all the time."

Former MSNBC host Chris Matthews (you know, the "thrill goes up my leg") criticized Romney and praised Medvedev's comeback that the Republican should "look at [your] watch: We are in 2012 and not the mid-1970s." 

"Is he trying to play Ronald Reagan here or what?" he asked his panel on "Hardball." "He's not a dumb man, but he said something that was clearly dumb," liberal columnist Cynthia Tucker told Matthews. 

The Huffington Post's Sam Stein, now with Politico, said it was an "antiquated worldview.

Paul Begala, a longtime Democratic strategist and now a CNN contributor, considered it a devastating burn at the time, saying Obama "nails Mitt … Bam!"

The mainstream media in 2012 were shills for the Obama-Biden campaign and the Democratic Party just like they are today. Former President Obama's failed leadership and the mainstream media's mockery of Romney's comments are as much to blame for the situation currently unfolding in Ukraine as President Biden's policies and repeated weakness on the world stage.

They didn’t tell you the truth in 2012, why would you think they would now?

Analyzing the Vaccination Program

We will get our vaccinations. We will achieve "herd immunity. Here are my calculations on vaccinations. (Also read "Life in the Herd"to understand what "herd immunity" is, why it is important, and why we will get there.)

Doses available, promised or likely, to be distributed by July 1: 200 million doses: Pfizer and Moderna, 100 million each promised and purchased by the US Government. 50 million doses, are estimated to be delivered by Johnson & Johnson, pending approval, to be requested as soon as the week after Christmas, delivery to start in January 1. Total doses, therefore, are 250 million by July 1, or 125 million Americans who can be vaccinated: 2 doses (shots) = 1 person vaccinated.

US Population 328 million

Will not be vaccinated: 40 million under age 10. This population is not at significant risk, and was not significantly represented in trials
Already vaccinated (or in progress): 24 million healthcare workers, first responders, and educators
Vaccinations used in Phase 1: 24 million, 
Vaccinations available before July 1 after first wave: 101 million
Population remaining to be vaccinated: 264 million
Vaccination refusers: 55 million (based on Pew survey, those who responded, “no, not likely to change my mind.")
Population remaining to be vaccinated: 209 million
Population immune for at least 5-7 months after contracting COVID 19 and recovering: 20 million
Population remaining to be vaccinated: 189 million.
Population over age 70 (assumed to include many of those with secondary condition): 36 million, after which there are...
Vaccinations available: 65 million
Population age 55-70: 60 million.
Vaccinations remaining after July 1, (following “first wave” (health workers, 1st responders, educators), and after the next most vulnerable part of the population, 55-85+) = 5 million
Population remaining to be vaccinated after July 1 = 93 million, all under 55 and over 9 years old, and without contributing conditions. Add 40 million if by then it is decided to vaccinate young children.

Life in the Herd

 What you need to know about Herd Immunity and will we achieve it?

What is Herd Immunity?
(For context also read "Analyzing the Vaccination Program")

Herd immunity happens when a virus can’t spread because it keeps encountering people who are protected against infection. Once a sufficient proportion of the population is no longer susceptible, any new outbreak peters out. You don’t need everyone in the population to be immune — you just need enough people to be immune. Typically, herd immunity is discussed as a desirable result of wide-scale vaccination programs.

How high is the threshold for SARS-CoV-2?

Epidemiologists can estimate the proportion of a population that needs to be immune before herd immunity kicks in. This threshold depends on the basic reproduction number, R0 — the number of cases, on average, spawned by one infected individual in an otherwise fully susceptible, well-mixed population. For instance, measles is extremely infectious, with an R0 typically between 12 and 18, which works out to a herd-immunity threshold of 92–94% of the population. For a virus that is less infectious (with a lower reproduction number), the threshold is lower.

Calculating Herd Immunity for SARS-CovV-2

Reaching herd immunity depends in part on what’s happening in the population. Calculations of the threshold are very sensitive to the values of R.

A team of scientists estimated the R0 in more than 30 countries, using data on the daily number of new COVID-19 cases from March. Estimates of the threshold for SARS-CoV-2 range from 10% to 70% or even more. But models that calculate numbers at the lower end of that range rely on assumptions about how people interact in social networks that can’t be counted on to hold true. The result is that the herd-immunity threshold will be closer to 60–70%, which is what most models show.

If if my calculation of the vaccinations achieved by July 1, 2021 are correct (they are based on known available doses), the United States vaccine-induced and natural immunity (the latter just a small part) is between 61 and 72%, depending on the “spreader” impact of the 40 million children not vaccinated. (data suggest children are not significant “spreaders.”)

Letter from a Hot Spot -- Get off that Ledge

I live in Sun City, Maricopa County, Arizona, a suburb of Phoenix. You all hear that this is one of the country's "hot spots," with day and night yammering talking heads scaring the bejesus out of you. (Well, of course. That's in their job description. The ratings thing, you know.)

Anyway, I am just fine. I wear a mask in Walmart and Kroger--not in the car, not out walking, not at home. Linda and I have taken three trips, since June 1. We visited her brother in Delta, Colorado, staying overnight on the Navajo reservation (another "hot spot"), on the way and on the way back. We survived.

Also in June, we met my sister and her husband and another Las Vegas Porsche Club couple in Flagstaff, Arizona (overnight there), then did a three car (two Porsches and my 550i) caravan to explore a "twisty road route" for a Porsche Club event in the fall. It was a good one. We survived that, too.

July 16 we drove to Williams, Arizona. This small town (pop. 3023) is a tourist meca on Historic Route 66 (bars, souvenir shops (obviously an essential business), restaurants, mostly with a cowboy or 1960's hot-rod theme. Arizona has had a mask mandate for weeks. Compliance is good in the big metros; in small towns like Willliams, not so much. Bars are closed but restaurants are not (so if you're a bar, put one of those big soft pretzels on a menu). Our friends are known by all the bartenders in town (that's a lot) so we spent Thursday afternoon saying "hi" to as many as possible. We survived that, too (at least so far).

Here’s what we’re not doing: Trivia night at a favorite sports bar. Dining out (though we could; enough restaurants are open with limited seating). Having a beer at Buffalo Wild Wings with friends talking football. (You’d think I’d have lost a bunch of weight. Alas, that's not the case.). What I have been doing is polishing the heck out of my two cars. Reading. Veterans stuff, including a Cav newsletter. House cleaning (well, a little bit). Enough to stay busy.

So, what about that raging pandemic? People, especially old farts like me, dropping like flies! At least that’s what what I saw on my TV yesterday. So, to make you feel better here is some information about this “hot spot.” Unfortunately, whether it does or not probably has more to do with your politics than anything else. Most will be thus predisposed to accept or reject good (or bad) news.

Arizona has reported 152,944 COVID-19 cases, resulting in 3,063 deaths. That’s a mortality of nearly exactly 2%. Maricopa County (this one) accounts for two thirds of Arizona’s cases, 102,247. Reported deaths: 1599, or 1.6%. But, isn’t Maricopa home to lots of retirees? It is, and I live in Sun City, one of the oldest and largest planned retirement communities. The question is a good one, because according to CDC data, 80% of deaths are 65 years old and older (75% in the week ending July 18).

I can get down to zip codes for cases, but not for deaths. In three zip codes that cover Sun City and Sun City West, there have been 798 cases in a population of about 70,000 with a median age of 74 years. I can’t find any real good indicators of deaths, but according to the local paper we don’t have the assisted living issue that some states do—looking at you New York and New Jersey. There are about 20 assisted living facilities in these two retirement communities. The local newspaper, Sun City Independent surveyed five of the largest, with over 2,000 residents and 1,000 staff. The surprising result? As of July 1, Only two of the five had any cases among staff or residents, those totaling just 6 cases (2 staff, 4 resident). I won’t go into all they did, but one item stands out. When Arizona opened restaurants and fitness clubs, Grandview in Sun City West made sure its own (inside) restaurant, fitness center and pool were open, giving residents a safe alternative to “going out.” It seems you just need a bit of common sense.