We will get our vaccinations. We will achieve "herd immunity. Here are my calculations on vaccinations. (Also read "Life in the Herd"to understand what "herd immunity" is, why it is important, and why we will get there.)
Doses available, promised or likely, to be distributed by July 1: 200 million doses: Pfizer and Moderna, 100 million each promised and purchased by the US Government. 50 million doses, are estimated to be delivered by Johnson & Johnson, pending approval, to be requested as soon as the week after Christmas, delivery to start in January 1. Total doses, therefore, are 250 million by July 1, or 125 million Americans who can be vaccinated: 2 doses (shots) = 1 person vaccinated.
US Population 328 million
Will
not be vaccinated: 40 million under age 10. This population is not at significant risk, and was not significantly represented in trials
Already
vaccinated (or in progress): 24 million healthcare workers, first
responders, and educators
Vaccinations
used in Phase 1: 24 million,
Vaccinations available before July 1 after first
wave: 101 million
Population
remaining to be vaccinated: 264 million
Vaccination
refusers: 55 million (based on Pew survey,
those who responded, “no, not likely to change my mind.")
Population remaining to be vaccinated: 209 million
Population
immune for at least 5-7 months after contracting COVID 19 and
recovering: 20 million
Population
remaining to be vaccinated: 189 million.
Population
over age 70 (assumed to include many of those with secondary
condition): 36 million, after which there are...
Vaccinations
available: 65 million
Population
age 55-70: 60 million.
Vaccinations
remaining after July 1, (following “first wave” (health workers,
1st responders, educators), and after the next most vulnerable part
of the population, 55-85+) = 5 million
Population
remaining to be vaccinated after July 1 = 93 million, all under 55
and over 9 years old, and without contributing conditions. Add 40 million if by then it is decided to vaccinate young children.
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